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Head to Head gambling is a form of fixed odds betting, where you can wager on the result of a specific event, or a series of events. The basic bets are:
The total number of points scored in a game (e.g. for a football match)
The number of points scored by the home or away team
The number of goals scored in a game
The number of goals conceded by the away team
The number of free-kicks awarded in a game
The number of throw-ins awarded in a game
The number of corners awarded in a game
The total number of corners given in a game
Whether a player takes a penalty
What happens if a player is fouled
The number of dribbles by a player in a match
What happens if a player makes a throw-in
In each of the above bets, a potential benefit of the bet will depend on the certainty of the outcome. That is, what percentage chance of a given outcome there is? That number will also be the stake you stake on the bet. If you think the probability of a certain outcome is 80% and then win it is 20% – you win 10% of the stake, if you think the probability of a certain outcome is 80% and don’t win it is 10% – you lose 10% of the stake.
The key to this sport betting method is that you can think about these bets in one of two ways:
1) You can do a very simple statistical analysis and calculate how likely a particular outcome is to happen (e.g. if a team scores 1 goal at home in every game this season – 80%)
2) You can analyse individual aspects of a game and create a prediction (e.g. a score line of 1-0 with 2 minutes of stoppage time to play). Then you just wager on these elements. This is sometimes called “totting up”, “number crunching”, or “card counting”.
I’ll start with the first method – statistical analysis. For each match, you can pick a number of combinations and use the number of games to calculate the probability that the outcome will fall within one of those combinations (for example, with seven games in the Premier League, it is possible that the probability of a scoreline of 1-0 being scored by the home team is 60% and 0-0 being scored by the away team is 40%). This is called a “statistical power” for that game. The higher this number, the more likely it is that the outcome will fall in that range.
The odds of each combination is just the chance of getting that outcome (or lack of it), divided by the total number of possible combinations. So a probability of a score line of 1-0 with 2 minutes of stoppage time to play (around 20%) is multiplied by 0.8 (the number of possible combinations). So a punter with a statistical power of 0.8 will win around 3% of the total stake on that bet, but a punter with a power of 1.8 will win over 60%. A power of 2.0, on the other hand, means the punter has the highest probability of any punter on a given bet, and so is the very best value for any given stake.
So let’s say a referee gives Chelsea two penalties during the game.